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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">geomorf</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Геоморфология и палеогеография</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Geomorfologiya i Paleogeografiya</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2949-1789</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2949-1797</issn><publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">geomorf-1771</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Методика научных исследований</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Scientific Research Methods</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Моделирование эволюции аккумулятивных берегов Баренцева и Курского морей</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Modelling of the accumulative coasts' evolution of the Barents and Kara Sea</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Леонтьев</surname><given-names>И. О.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Leont'ev</surname><given-names>I. O.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт океанологии РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2002</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>05</month><year>2022</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>1</issue><issue-title>Геоморфология</issue-title><fpage>53</fpage><lpage>64</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Леонтьев И.О., 2015</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2015</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Леонтьев И.О.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Leont'ev I.O.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://geomorphology.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1771">https://geomorphology.igras.ru/jour/article/view/1771</self-uri><abstract><p>The objective of this study is the prediction of long-term (about 100 years) evolution of typical accumulative coasts located in western Russian Arctic. The morphodynamic modelling is applied to coasts of Varanday (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Guba and Harasavay (the Kara Sea). The authors' model takes into account both the impact of short impulses (single storms) and the long-term factors (sea-level changes, multiannual average sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply etc.). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles agree well for time scales from weeks to decades. Wind-driven seaward flow at the bottom is an important destructive mechanism, contributing in process of abrasion and recession of Arctic coasts. This process depends on both the coast exposition and its height. The open coast of Varanday will retreat on distance of 300-500 m after 100 years, while the recession of less exposed coast of Baidaratskaya Guba would not exceed about 100 m. The process will decay in time. The expected global sea-level rise up to l m in a centenary is not the crucial factor of the future evolution of the coasts considered, and may strongly affect it in a particular cases only.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>The objective of this study is the prediction of long-term (about 100 years) evolution of typical accumulative coasts located in western Russian Arctic. The morphodynamic modelling is applied to coasts of Varanday (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Guba and Harasavay (the Kara Sea). The authors' model takes into account both the impact of short impulses (single storms) and the long-term factors (sea-level changes, multiannual average sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply etc.). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles agree well for time scales from weeks to decades. Wind-driven seaward flow at the bottom is an important destructive mechanism, contributing in process of abrasion and recession of Arctic coasts. This process depends on both the coast exposition and its height. The open coast of Varanday will retreat on distance of 300-500 m after 100 years, while the recession of less exposed coast of Baidaratskaya Guba would not exceed about 100 m. The process will decay in time. The expected global sea-level rise up to l m in a centenary is not the crucial factor of the future evolution of the coasts considered, and may strongly affect it in a particular cases only.</p></trans-abstract></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title></ref-list><fn-group><fn fn-type="conflict"><p>The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.</p></fn></fn-group></back></article>
