geomorfГеоморфология и палеогеографияGeomorfologiya i Paleogeografiya2949-17892949-179710.31857/S0435428122030063geomorf-2508Research ArticleСедиментология, палеогеокриология, палеогидрологияSedimentology, palaeogeocryology, palaeohydrologyРечной сток Волги в теплые климатические эпохи геологического прошлого; в период инструментальных наблюдений и сценарного будущегоVolga river runoff in the warm climatic epochs of the geological past; in the periods of instrumental observations and the scenario futureГеоргиадиА. Г.GeorgiadiA. G.МилюковаИ. П.MilyukovaI. P.Институт географии РАНРоссияInstitute of Geography RASRussian Federation202207102022533Геоморфология146152Copyright © Георгиади А.Г., Милюкова И.П., 20222022Георгиади А.Г., Милюкова И.П.Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://geomorphology.igras.ru/jour/article/view/2508

Анализируются особенности изменения стока Волги в микулинское межледниковье (~125 тыс. лет назад), оптимуме голоцена, в период современного (начиная с 1981 г.) и сценарного (2006–2039 гг.) глобального потепления. Использованы палеоклиматические реконструкции, основанные на данных спорово-пыльцевого анализа ископаемых растений и результатах расчетов, выполненных на ансамбле глобальных климатических моделей программы PMIP-II, а также сценариях потепления климата, осуществленных на ансамбле глобальных климатических моделей программы CMIP3. Гидрологические изменения были оценены на основе модели месячного водного баланса. Наиболее заметные гидроклиматические изменения произошли в микулинское межледниковье, когда годовой речной сток оценивается на 25% меньше его современного значения. Сценарная температура воздуха в бассейне Волги в первую треть текущего столетия была близка к температуре голоценового оптимума, реконструированного на основе палинологических данных. В то же время смоделированный годовой сток был ниже современного. При прогнозируемых и голоценовых климатических условиях, реконструированных в рамках PMIP-II, он оказывается выше современных. Наиболее заметные различия в стоке Волги в теплом климате оптимума голоцена, современном и сценарном периодах проявляются в изменениях внутригодового распределения стока.

The features of the Volga water flow changes in the last interglacial climatic optimum (~125 ka BP), Holocene optimum, modern (starting from 1981), and scenario (2006–2039) global warming have been revealed. Paleoclimatic reconstructions based on data of spore and pollen analysis of fossil plants and results of calculations carried out on the ensemble of global climate models of PMIP-II program, as well as scenarios of climate warming, performed on an ensemble of global climate models of CMIP3 program, have been used. Hydrological changes have been evaluated on the basis of the monthly water balance model). The most notable hydroclimatic changes took place in the warm epoch of the last interglacial climatic optimum, when the annual river runoff was 25% less than its modern value. Scenario air temperature in the Volga basin for the first third of the current century was close to the temperature of the Holocene optimum, reconstructed on the basis of palynological data. At the same time, the simulated annual flow was lower than the modern one. At projected and the Holocene Optimum climatic conditions reconstructed within PMIP-II, it appears above modern. The most noticeable differences in the Volga flow in warm climate of the Holocene optimum, modern and scenario periods are manifested in changes in the intra-annual distribution of their water flow.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.