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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">geomorf</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Геоморфология и палеогеография</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Geomorfologiya i Paleogeografiya</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2949-1789</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2949-1797</issn><publisher><publisher-name></publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31857/S2949178925020062</article-id><article-id custom-type="edn" pub-id-type="custom">GPYBCL</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">geomorf-3533</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Геоморфология морских берегов и дна</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Морфолитодинамика берегов острова Итуруп (Большая Курильская гряда) за историческое время по данным натурных исследований и моделирования</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Study of morpholithodynamics and modeling of coastal processes on Iturup Island (Kuril Islands)</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8573-5062</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Хомчановский</surname><given-names>А. Л.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Khomchanovsky</surname><given-names>А. L.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">khomscience@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Батанов</surname><given-names>Ф. И.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Batanov</surname><given-names>F. I.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">tiocithree@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6284-8830</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Пинегина</surname><given-names>Т. К.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Pinegina</surname><given-names>T. K.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><email xlink:type="simple">pinegtk@yandex.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Хубаева</surname><given-names>О. Р.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Khubaeva</surname><given-names>O. R.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт вулканологии и сейсмологии ДВО РАН, Петропавловск-Камчатский</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of Volcanology and Seismology FEB RAS, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>06</day><month>08</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>56</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>262</fpage><lpage>282</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Хомчановский А.Л., Батанов Ф.И., Пинегина Т.К., Хубаева О.Р., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Хомчановский А.Л., Батанов Ф.И., Пинегина Т.К., Хубаева О.Р.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Khomchanovsky А.L., Batanov F.I., Pinegina T.K., Khubaeva O.R.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://geomorphology.igras.ru/jour/article/view/3533">https://geomorphology.igras.ru/jour/article/view/3533</self-uri><abstract><p>Основные рельефообразующие процессы на голоценовых аккумулятивных морских террасах о-ва Итуруп связаны с перераспределением наносов на пляже и подводном береговом склоне. На интенсивность этих процессов в значительной степени влияют неотектонические и сейсмические условия, поскольку остров расположен в пределах Курило-Камчатской зоны субдукции. В этой связи он подвержен как медленным тектоническим вертикальным движениям, так и быстрым косейсмическим, которые наиболее сильно влияют на рельеф берега. Данное исследование рассматривает такие факторы рельефообразования и осадконакопления как затопление территории в результате штормовых нагонов и деформации берегового аккумулятивного рельефа при штормовом волнении в условиях изменения уровня моря. Использовано три взаимодополняющих метода: палеосейсмологический, геоморфологический и метод математического моделирования. Данный подход позволяет рассмотреть прошлое морской террасы, ее современное состояние, а благодаря методам моделирования перейти к прогнозу ее развития в будущем. По результатам палеосейсмологических работ в теле береговых валов аккумулятивной морской террасы найдено четыре погребенных уступа размыва, свидетельствующих о происходивших здесь ранее косейсмических опусканиях, которые привели к резкому изменению относительного уровня моря. По тефре Та-а 1739 г., вскрытой в уступе, установлен приблизительный возраст молодых береговых валов (~280 лет). На основании фондовых данных, топографических карт, спутниковых снимков и полевых исследований на о-ве Итуруп в 2022–2023 гг. построены цифровые карты и цифровые модели рельефа (ЦМР) береговой зоны Курильского залива. На основании полученной ЦМР показано потенциальное затопление территории при возможных резких изменениях относительного уровня моря, которые могут произойти в будущем. На основе теоретического берегового профиля равновесия (модель Дина) выявлено, что в данный момент аккумулятивная морская терраса находится в стабильном состоянии. С помощью литодинамического моделирования (модель SBEACH) воспроизведены сценарии штормов при различных уровнях моря. Сделан вывод, что размыв террасы возможен либо катастрофическими штормами редкой повторяемости, либо после опускания берега, которое может произойти после мощного землетрясения.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>Sediment redistribution on the beach and offshore slope are the main processes forming the accumulating marine terraces of Iturup Island. The intensity of these processes is controlled by tectonic and seismic activity associated with Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. The long-term changes of the island ground level are due to vertical tectonic movement, while the short-term changes are associated with seismicity. Studies of morpholithodynamic processes in the coastal zone on the island of Iturup were carried out using the methods of paleoseismology, geomorphological analysis, and computer modeling. Based on previously collected data, analysis of topographic maps and satellite imagery, and field measurements on Iturup Island in 2022–2023, digital maps and digital elevation models (DEMs) of the coastal zone of the Kuril Bay were constructed. Four buried scarps were discovered within the beach ridge sediments on the accumulative marine terrace, indicating vertical coseismic subsidence that periodically occurs on the Sea of Okhotsk coast of Iturup. Based on tephra from the Tarumae volcano, the approximate age of the young beach ridges has been established (about 280 years). Applied 3D modeling predicted the flooding of the territory at different sea levels. Coastal profile of equilibrium developed from the DEM using the Dean model indicated that the modern marine terrace is stable. The SBEACH software was used to simulated storm surges and storm frequencies at different sea level scenarios. It was concluded that the erosion of the accumulative marine terrace, where the city of Kurilsk is located is possible either by catastrophic storms of rare recurrence, or after abrupt coseismic subsidence of the coast, which can occur during a strong earthquake in the area of the southern segment of the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>профиль равновесия</kwd><kwd>модель SBEACH</kwd><kwd>косейсмические деформации</kwd><kwd>затопление прибрежной суши</kwd><kwd>цунами</kwd><kwd>уровень моря</kwd><kwd>штормовые деформации</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Iturup</kwd><kwd>equilibrium beach profile</kwd><kwd>computer simulation</kwd><kwd>SBEACH model</kwd><kwd>coseismic deformations</kwd><kwd>coastal inundation</kwd><kwd>tsunami</kwd><kwd>sea level</kwd><kwd>storm deformation</kwd><kwd>coastal profile</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Авторы признательны сотрудникам ИМГиГ ДВО РАН (г. Южно-Сахалинск) Д. Н. Козлову, Р. В. Жаркову и А. В. Дегтереву за помощь в организации гидрографических промеров и методических консультациях. Полевые данные получены при поддержке гранта Российского научного фонда № 21-17-00049, руководитель Е. И. Гордеев, https://rscf.ru/project/21-17-00049/. Обработка материала происходила в рамках темы НИР № 0282-2019-0005 (FWEW-2019-0005) “Глубинное строение, сейсмичность и геодинамика Курило-Камчатской островодужной системы”, руководитель – А. И. Кожурин</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The authors are grateful to D. Kozlov, R. Zharkov, and A. Degterev of the IMGG FEB RAS (Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk) for their assistance in organizing hydrographic. The study was funded by the Russian Science Foundation, grant No. 21-17-00049 (E. 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