geomorfГеоморфология и палеогеографияGeomorfologiya i Paleogeografiya2949-17892949-179710.31857/S2949178925010079DNWWVYgeomorf-3639Research ArticleКаспий в плейстоцене: эволюция природной среды и человекГидрологические и климатические характеристики Каспийского моря в эпоху последнего ледникового максимума, оптимума голоцена и доиндустриальных условий по данным численного моделированияHydrological and climatic characteristics of the Caspian Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and preindustrial conditions according to numerical modelling dataМорозоваП. А.MorozovaP. A.morozova_polina@mail.ruУшаковК. В.UshakovK. V.СеменовВ. А.SemenovV. A.ВолодинЕ. М.VolodinE. M.ИбраевР. А.IbrayevR. A.Институт географии РАН, МоскваРоссияInstitute of Geography RAS, MoscowRussian FederationИнститут океанологии имени П.П. Ширшова РАН, МоскваРоссияShirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, MoscowRussian FederationИнститут географии РАН; Институт физики атмосферы имени А.М. Обухова РАН, МоскваРоссияInstitute of Geography RAS; Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, MoscowRussian FederationИнститут вычислительной математики имени Г.И. Марчука РАН, МоскваРоссияMarchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, MoscowRussian FederationИнститут океанологии имени П.П. Ширшова РАН; Институт вычислительной математики имени Г.И. Марчука РАН, МоскваРоссияShirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS; Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS, MoscowRussian Federation202502062025561130146Copyright © Морозова П.А., Ушаков К.В., Семенов В.А., Володин Е.М., Ибраев Р.А., 20252025Морозова П.А., Ушаков К.В., Семенов В.А., Володин Е.М., Ибраев Р.А.Morozova P.A., Ushakov K.V., Semenov V.A., Volodin E.M., Ibrayev R.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://geomorphology.igras.ru/jour/article/view/3639

В статье представлены результаты расчетов компонентов водного баланса Каспийского моря для широкого диапазона уровней озера (–85–50 м над у. м.) для двух наиболее контрастных климатических эпох за последние несколько десятков тысяч лет: среднего голоцена (6 тыс. л. н.) и последнего ледникового максимума (21 тыс. л. н.), а также доиндустриальных условий (~1850 г.). Была использована вихредопускающая океаническая модель INMIO, объединенная с моделью льда CICE. В качестве входных данных были использованы данные климатического моделирования INM–CM4.8 для указанных периодов. Получено, что объемы речного стока, необходимые для поддержания уровня озера на различных отметках для эпохи голоцена ниже доиндустриальных значений на 6–7%, а для последнего ледникового максимума – на 13–14% для регрессивных состояний и 20–21% для трансгрессивных. Исследована чувствительность к набору входных данных: их временному разрешению и источникам поступления воды в Каспий. Показано, что исключение внутрисуточной и внутримесячной изменчивости во входных метеоданных приводит к занижению объемов испарения с поверхности Каспия. Наибольшее влияние на данную величину оказывает исключение внутримесячной изменчивости динамического поля ветра, это приводит к уменьшению равновесного стока на 35%. Для корректного расчета продолжительности ледового сезона необходим учет внутрисуточного цикла приходящей радиации и температуры воздуха. Период таяния значительно удлиняется при использовании данных среднесуточного и среднемесячного разрешения, наибольшее влияние это оказывает при трансгрессивных состояниях Каспия. Перераспределение точек поступления речного стока вдоль побережья существенно не влияет на величину полного равновесного стока, что позволяет с большой вероятностью исключить неопределенность этой величины, связанную с недостатком данных о соотношении полноводности древних рек. Приводятся оценки гидроклиматических характеристик для Каспийского региона для среднего голоцена и позднего плейстоцена по данным климатического моделирования, выполненного в рамках проекта PMIP4.

Components of the water balance of the Caspian Sea are calculated for a wide range of lake levels (–85–50 m. a. s. l.) and for the two most contrasting climatic epochs over the last several tens of thousands of years: the middle Holocene (6 ka b. p.) and the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka b. p.), as well as for the pre-industrial conditions (~1850). The eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model INMIO coupled with the CICE ice model are used for the calculations. Climate data of the INM–CM4.8 model for the indicated periods are used as boundary conditions. It is found that the volumes of river inflow required to maintain the lake level at various marks for the Holocene era are lower than the corresponding pre-industrial values by 6–7%. For the Last Glacial Maximum this decrease is 13–14% for regressive states and 20–21% for transgressive ones. Sensitivity of the results is studied to the temporal resolution of boundary meteorological data and to the locations of fresh water inflow into the Caspian Sea. It is shown that excluding the diurnal and intramonthly variability in input data leads to an underestimation of evaporation from the surface of the sea. The greatest influence on this value is exerted by the exclusion of intramonthly variability of the dynamic wind field: this leads to a decrease in the equilibrium runoff by 35%. To correctly simulate the duration of the ice coverage season, it is necessary to take into account the diurnal cycle of incoming radiation and air temperature. The melting period is significantly lengthened when using data at daily or monthly resolution, which has the greatest impact during transgressive states of the Caspian Sea. The redistribution of river mouth locations along the coast does not significantly affect the value of the total equilibrium inflow, which makes it possible to most likely exclude the uncertainty of this value associated with the lack of data on the mutual ratio of discharge of ancient rivers. In addition, estimates of hydroclimatic characteristics of the Caspian region for the middle Holocene and late Pleistocene are provided based on climate modeling carried out within the framework of the PMIP4 project. 

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.