APPROACHES TO FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE SHORES OF THE EUROPEAN RUSSIA (PAPER 2. MORPHODYNAMIC OF MARINE SHORES AND PRINCIPLES OF FORECAST OF THEIR DEVELOPMENT)

The principles of constructing the legend of the morphodynamic map of the shores are outlined. The changes of the sea coasts of European Russia over the past 30–50 years are shown. In classifying the coasts to a particular morphodynamics type, the following was taken into account: their genesis, lithology of coastal cliffs, ice content (for permafrost coasts), information on tidal and surge oscillations of the sea level, data on rates of bank retreat/advance obtained by comparison of time-series of topographic maps and satellite images. The basic principles of forecasting the development of the coasts were suggested: the basin approach – taking into account the specific features of a whole sea basin; regional approach – taking into account the characteristics of the coastal territory; analysis of the current state of the coasts – through their classification; retrospective reconstruction of coast development; scenario approach – geomorphological forecast. An example of such a forecast is given for the coast of the Sambian Peninsula in the southeastern Baltic.

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