Моделирование эволюции аккумулятивных берегов Баренцева и Курского морей

Аннотация

The objective of this study is the prediction of long-term (about 100 years) evolution of typical accumulative coasts located in western Russian Arctic. The morphodynamic modelling is applied to coasts of Varanday (the Barents Sea), Baydaratskaya Guba and Harasavay (the Kara Sea). The authors' model takes into account both the impact of short impulses (single storms) and the long-term factors (sea-level changes, multiannual average sediment flux, lack or excess of sediment supply etc.). Predicted and observed morphological changes in coastal profiles agree well for time scales from weeks to decades. Wind-driven seaward flow at the bottom is an important destructive mechanism, contributing in process of abrasion and recession of Arctic coasts. This process depends on both the coast exposition and its height. The open coast of Varanday will retreat on distance of 300-500 m after 100 years, while the recession of less exposed coast of Baidaratskaya Guba would not exceed about 100 m. The process will decay in time. The expected global sea-level rise up to l m in a centenary is not the crucial factor of the future evolution of the coasts considered, and may strongly affect it in a particular cases only.