Volga river runoff in the warm climatic epochs of the geological past; in the periods of instrumental observations and the scenario future

A. G. Georgiadi; I. P. Milyukova

doi:10.31857/S0435428122030063

Volga river runoff in the warm climatic epochs of the geological past; in the periods of instrumental observations and the scenario future

A. G. Georgiadi, I. P. Milyukova

https://doi.org/10.31857/S0435428122030063

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Abstract

The features of the Volga water flow changes in the last interglacial climatic optimum (~125 ka BP), Holocene optimum, modern (starting from 1981), and scenario (2006–2039) global warming have been revealed. Paleoclimatic reconstructions based on data of spore and pollen analysis of fossil plants and results of calculations carried out on the ensemble of global climate models of PMIP-II program, as well as scenarios of climate warming, performed on an ensemble of global climate models of CMIP3 program, have been used. Hydrological changes have been evaluated on the basis of the monthly water balance model). The most notable hydroclimatic changes took place in the warm epoch of the last interglacial climatic optimum, when the annual river runoff was 25% less than its modern value. Scenario air temperature in the Volga basin for the first third of the current century was close to the temperature of the Holocene optimum, reconstructed on the basis of palynological data. At the same time, the simulated annual flow was lower than the modern one. At projected and the Holocene Optimum climatic conditions reconstructed within PMIP-II, it appears above modern. The most noticeable differences in the Volga flow in warm climate of the Holocene optimum, modern and scenario periods are manifested in changes in the intra-annual distribution of their water flow.

Keywords

the Mikulino interglacial climatic optimum, the Holocene optimum, modern global warming, the Volga

About the Authors

A. G. Georgiadi

Institute of Geography RAS
Russian Federation

I. P. Milyukova

Institute of Geography RAS
Russian Federation

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Review

For citations:

Georgiadi A.G., Milyukova I.P. Volga river runoff in the warm climatic epochs of the geological past; in the periods of instrumental observations and the scenario future. Geomorfologiya. 2022;53(3):146-152. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.31857/S0435428122030063