Regularities of change for location density and size changes of thermal cirques of the abrasion shores within the cryolithozone based on remote sensing data

The aim of this research is to determine the changes through time of the quantitative parameters of the thermal cirques along the abrasive coasts within the cryolithozone. The analysis of the processes revealed two opposite trends; a decrease in the number of the thermal cirques along the cryolithozone coastlines due to replacement of the older thermal cirques with new ones, and an increase in their number due to the emergence of new ones within the existent forms. This increase results from their division and the display of the new thermal cirques. Based on the calculated average density and size of the thermal cirques the model predicted that under the homogeneous physical geographical conditions the average density of thermal cirques along the abrasive coasts within the cryolithozone should increase with time, while the average size should decrease. The local physical and geocryological conditions influence the values of the dependence parameters, but their relationship remains the same. An examination of the obtained dependence showed that with time, the density and average size of the thermal cirques tend to reach critical limiting values. At the same time the retreating coastal slope continue to change, new thermal cirques appear, and partial or complete disappearance of the existing ones occurs. Thus, after a significant period of development, the morphology of the abrasive coast may reach a state of dynamic equilibrium. Analysis of six abrasive coasts using repeated satellite imagery showed an increase in density and a decrease in average sizes of the thermal cirque along three of them, and an apparent stability of parameters along the other three coasts, which is in an agreement with the obtained modeling results. The obtained regularities should be used when forecasting the dynamics of the Arctic coasts based on satellite imagery.

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