Modern dynamics of the sea edge of the Kilian Danube delta: basic patterns and forecast

The Kiliya delta is the youngest (up to 250–350 years old) part of the Danube delta. It belongs to the extension delta type and is protruding into the non-tidal sea. Based on long-ternm field investigation, analysis of Sattelite images, measurement of hydrological parameters in its channels (depth, flow rates, river water flow rates, bottom sediment composition) collected over decades since 1962 it is established that the Kiliya delta is highly dynamic, and is currently at the stage of the intensive development. According to delta channels morphology, sediment accumulation, and distribution of wave energy along the delta shoreline, three sections of delta were distinguished. The northern section, that is connected with the Ochakovsky and Potapovsky branches, located in the vicinity of Novo-Dunaisk port and therefore experiencing anthropogenic impact. The development of submerged accumulative terrace and the appearance of emerged land were documented in this section of delta. The central section is forming under the influence of significant increase in alongshore sediment runoff from the northern sector, changes in discharge in the Starostambul and Novostambul channels, as well as the most recent cuts of the Tsyganka and Musur channels. The southern section of the Kiliya delta is most dynamic. Redistribution of water runoff and bottom sediments, restructuring of the relief; formation of new channels (Yuzhny), current development of lakes (Tsyganka, Musura, Sulinsk), as well as new delta islands, Novaya Zemlya are recorded in the southern delta section. An attempt to forecast further development of the southern delta section has been made for the next 20–30 years. Future changes may affect not only the natural delta environment, but also economic facilities (the ports of YuzhnoDunaisk and Sulina, a navigable canal at the entrance to the Bystry branch), and create problems of delimitation of the state border with Romania.

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