Влияние промежутка времени между наблюдениями на оценку скорости геолого-геоморфологических процессов

Аннотация

Examples of measured and calculated rates of geologic-geomorphic processes demonstrate that estimated rates usually decrease while the time intervals between measurements increase. It is shown that such a relation is inevitable in conditions of inadequate information and complicated oscillative-progressive charachter of the natural process. Rate estimates approximate mean value when time interval increases. The term «fiducial time» is proposed for the time period long enough to make an estimated rate equal to the mean rate with high probability born in mind in advance. The ideas proposed are exemplified by data on rates of horizontal migration of shoreline in one of the White Sea tidal bays. In is proved that in order to calculate the mean multi-year rate of this process one should have a statistically significant series of shoreline position estimate for 7 to 10 years.