On the problem of forecast in geomorphology

Abstract

Geomorphological forecast based on observations series does not always produce satisfactory results. A new approach to forecast is introduced based on concept of process development, i. e. functional geomorphological forecast, which presents in essence a search and analysis of combinations of geographic situations, their evaluation and coding in special prognostic-euristic maps. The functional forecast is based on conceptual models. The models' construction and subsequent analysis permit a search for spatial and temporal regularities as well as for «local unhomogeneities» which are sites of new geographic spatial-temporal structures.