ON THE CHANNEL DEFORMATIONS FORECASTING

Abstract

There are three levels of forecasting channel deformations: for rivers’ reaches of considerable length, for some forms of the channel, and for the local forms of the channel topography. Author suggests classifi cation of forecasts depending on the time scales of the processes, on natural factors and anthropogenic pressures (current, seasonal, multi-year, long-term, perspective forecasts). Among the methods and techniques of the forecasting there are hydrological-morphological analysis of river channels, construction of QI-charts, identifying trends in the development of channels by comparison of the different age mapping plans, maps, and satellite images, obtaining hydromorphometric dependencies, calculations by empirical formulas, paleochannel reconstruction, using the sediment balance and water discharge/water level curves. For each type of forecasts their accuracy and the source material were characterized, the possible applications were substantiated. The time limitations of the calculations by the analytical formulas were shown.