МНОГОМЕРНЫЙ АНАЛИЗ И ВЕРОЯТНОСТНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ АКТИВНОСТИ ЭНДОГЕННЫХ РЕЛЬЕФООБ- РАЗУЮЩИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ

Аннотация

Volcanic and seismological processes of relief formation are cosmic processes. In this paper, an attempt was made to analyse their time series in connection with parameters of orbital movement of the Earth. Data on volcanic eruptions (according to Catalogue Worldwide Volcanic Eruptions, Guschenko, 1979), earthquakes with M > 5 (according to USGS/NEIC Significant Worldwide Earthquakes), and astronomical parameters - distances between the Earth and the Moon, the Earth and the Sun, lunar ecliptic latitude, differences of geocentric longitudes of the Moon and the Sun, Venus and the Sun, Mars and the Sun (according to JPL Planetary and Lunar Ephemerides, DE-406) were used. The values of multivariate diurnal probability were calculated. The latter has linear correlation with diurnal probability of "geoevents". On the basis of these results and with the use of astronomical ephemerides the global probability of volcanic and seismic activity was calculated for the years 2005-2007.